College football scores › Week 9 › Illinois at Maryland
BEAVERILL −2.5, best betbest betOver 54.5, leanleanBEAVER gives ILL 67% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Illinois
Maryland
IllinoisMarylandBEAVER’s card
Best betILL −2.5, best bet4.6 points off the line
- Over 54.5 lean, 2.9 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ILL–MD) | 32–25 | – | |
| Spread | ILL −7.1 | ILL −2.5 | ILL −2.5 |
| Total | 57.4 | 54.5 | Over 54.5 |
| MD win chance | 33% | +120 |
ILL by 14+
33%
ILL by 1–13
34%
MD by 1–13
23%
MD by 14+
10%
Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened ILL −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.103 #25Offense EPA / play−0.076 #94
+0.162 #122Defense EPA / play allowed+0.012 #61
+6.0% #18Offense success rate−2.9% #92
+3.5% #95Defense success rate allowed+1.2% #79
+0.144 #26Rushing EPA / play+0.056 #53
+0.100 #31Passing EPA / play−0.184 #115
+0.101 #103Rush defense EPA allowed+0.036 #78
+0.202 #118Pass defense EPA allowed−0.012 #45
+3.8 #38Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.7 #71
−1.3 #53Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.6 #103
Situational
+4.1% #23Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.3% #72
+7.6% #129Passing-down success allowed+2.4% #94
+0.61 #29Points per drive+0.01 #67
+0.09 #67Points per drive allowed+0.62 #99
Trenches
+0.47 #15Line yards per rush−0.08 #102
−0.02 #63Line yards per rush allowed−0.19 #39
−7.9% #2Runs stuffed at the line+0.8% #109
−1.0% #82Opponent runs stuffed+0.2% #69
−5.1% #10Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.3% #29
−2.7% #117Havoc created−1.2% #85
Big plays
+0.071 #40Rushing explosiveness+0.232 #6
+0.030 #101Passing explosiveness−0.024 #118
+0.26 #27Open-field yards per rush+0.14 #33
−0.108 #22Pass explosiveness allowed−0.068 #32
Style and schedule
53% #94Run rate46% #133
+1.4 #22Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−2.3 #43
Illinois: last 5 games
| W21-10 | Covered | |
| W38-37 | Missed | |
| L17-24 | Missed | |
| L19-42 | Covered | |
| W48-10 | Covered |
Maryland: last 5 games
| L30-37 | Missed | |
| L16-45 | Covered | |
| L23-48 | Missed | |
| L3-54 | Missed | |
| L26-35 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekILLMD
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The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyIllinoisMaryland
IllinoisMarylandLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ILL −2.5 | 54.5 | ILL −142 · MD +120 |
| BEAVER fair line | ILL −7.1 | 57.4 | ILL −203 · MD +203 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ILL | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 0-4 |
| 3-2 | Home | 1-3 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 30.3 / 25.3 | Points for / against | 28.3 / 33.3 |
| +5.0 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| -1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.5 |
| 60.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.9 |