College football scores › Week 9 › Wisconsin at Iowa
Kinnick Stadium, 53°, wind 10 mph
BEAVEROver 36.5, leanleanIOWA −3.5, leanleanBEAVER gives IOWA 63% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Wisconsin
Iowa
WisconsinIowaBEAVER’s card
LeanOver 36.5, lean3.7 points off the line
- IOWA −3.5 lean, 1.7 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WIS–IOWA) | 18–23 | – | |
| Spread | IOWA −5.2 | IOWA −3.5 | IOWA −3.5 |
| Total | 40.2 | 36.5 | Over 36.5 |
| IOWA win chance | 63% | −170 |
WIS by 14+
11%
WIS by 1–13
26%
IOWA by 1–13
35%
IOWA by 14+
28%
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Iowa (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened IOWA −4.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.011 #60Offense EPA / play+0.043 #43
−0.149 #12Defense EPA / play allowed−0.064 #31
−1.7% #83Offense success rate+2.5% #41
−4.8% #19Defense success rate allowed−6.4% #10
+0.157 #20Rushing EPA / play+0.062 #49
−0.088 #88Passing EPA / play+0.150 #21
−0.065 #33Rush defense EPA allowed−0.150 #12
−0.219 #7Pass defense EPA allowed+0.095 #88
+0.0 #64Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.8 #52
−10.7 #6Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−9.1 #10
Situational
−4.3% #97Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.9% #109
−7.5% #7Passing-down success allowed−5.9% #11
+0.20 #55Points per drive+0.57 #31
−1.18 #7Points per drive allowed−1.02 #11
Trenches
+0.25 #43Line yards per rush+0.28 #37
−0.34 #19Line yards per rush allowed−0.32 #22
−5.6% #13Runs stuffed at the line−4.1% #35
+0.3% #65Opponent runs stuffed+2.6% #37
−1.6% #64Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.1% #19
+1.8% #26Havoc created+0.6% #42
Big plays
+0.263 #4Rushing explosiveness+0.070 #42
+0.143 #57Passing explosiveness−0.017 #116
−0.16 #77Open-field yards per rush+0.14 #34
−0.216 #7Pass explosiveness allowed+0.107 #115
Style and schedule
61% #23Run rate55% #75
+1.8 #20Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−2.2 #42
Wisconsin: last 5 games
| W24-7 | Covered | |
| L7-17 | Missed | |
| W31-3 | Covered | |
| W24-20 | Covered | |
| W54-10 | Covered |
Iowa: last 5 games
| L10-13 | Missed | |
| W41-24 | Covered | |
| L14-31 | Missed | |
| W20-19 | Covered | |
| W55-0 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWISIOWA
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyWisconsinIowa
WisconsinIowaLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | IOWA −3.5 | 36.5 | WIS +142 · IOWA −170 |
| BEAVER fair line | IOWA −5.2 | 40.2 | WIS +172 · IOWA −172 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WIS | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 27.0 / 15.3 | Points for / against | 28.0 / 14.3 |
| +11.7 | Avg margin | +13.7 |
| +5.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 55.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.0 |