BEAVER
College football scores › Week 10 › Miami at Notre Dame
MiamiNo. 17-0away
BEAVER projects25
Notre Dame Stadium, 42°, wind 7 mph
Notre DameNo. 56-1home
BEAVER projects32
BEAVEROver 54.5, leanleanND −6.5, leanleanBEAVER gives ND 67% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Miami
Notre Dame

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Over 54.5, lean1.9 points off the line
  • ND −6.5 lean, 0.7 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (MIA–ND)25–32–
SpreadND −7.2ND −6.5ND −6.5
Total56.454.5Over 54.5
ND win chance67%−238
MIA by 14+
9%
MIA by 1–13
23%
ND by 1–13
34%
ND by 14+
34%

Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for Notre Dame (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.277 #1Offense EPA / play+0.256 #2
−0.072 #29Defense EPA / play allowed−0.202 #2
+10.1% #3Offense success rate+9.5% #6
−3.5% #28Defense success rate allowed−8.4% #5
+0.149 #23Rushing EPA / play+0.221 #4
+0.402 #1Passing EPA / play+0.277 #6
−0.195 #3Rush defense EPA allowed−0.215 #2
+0.015 #57Pass defense EPA allowed−0.164 #14
+16.8 #1Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+14.9 #2
−7.6 #16Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−11.4 #5
Situational
+8.7% #8Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.5% #56
−1.9% #45Passing-down success allowed−4.2% #21
+2.75 #1Points per drive+2.69 #2
−0.75 #24Points per drive allowed−1.02 #10
Trenches
+0.64 #3Line yards per rush+0.38 #26
−0.41 #12Line yards per rush allowed−0.37 #16
−10.1% #1Runs stuffed at the line−6.1% #10
+1.3% #54Opponent runs stuffed+4.1% #22
−6.9% #4Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.7% #7
−0.6% #71Havoc created+5.4% #2
Big plays
+0.033 #55Rushing explosiveness+0.063 #44
+0.177 #43Passing explosiveness+0.041 #99
+0.09 #39Open-field yards per rush+0.08 #43
+0.016 #72Pass explosiveness allowed−0.234 #5
Style and schedule
53% #95Run rate56% #57
−6.9 #76Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.1 #30

Miami: last 5 games

W52-23
vsPittsburgh
Covered
W43-35
vsFlorida State
Missed
W41-13
atClemson
Covered
W52-3
vsCentral Michigan
Covered
W33-20
atWake Forest
Missed

Notre Dame: last 5 games

L24-28
atBYU
Missed
W58-7
vsStanford
Covered
W37-26
atNorth Carolina
Missed
W49-10
atPurdue
Covered
W27-10
vsMichigan State
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.04+0.10+0.24+0.37+0.51Entering week12345678910Miami · 1: +0.26Miami · 2: +0.31Miami · 3: +0.36Miami · 4: +0.35Miami · 5: +0.37Miami · 6: +0.41Miami · 7: +0.41Miami · 8: +0.38Miami · 9: +0.35Miami · 10: +0.35Notre Dame · 1: +0.33Notre Dame · 2: +0.37Notre Dame · 3: +0.45Notre Dame · 4: +0.39Notre Dame · 5: +0.44Notre Dame · 6: +0.42Notre Dame · 7: +0.47Notre Dame · 8: +0.46Notre Dame · 9: +0.46Notre Dame · 10: +0.46
● Miami● Notre Dame