BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Virginia at Wake Forest
Virginia4-4away
BEAVER projects17
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, 68°, wind 9 mph
Wake ForestNo. 146-1home
BEAVER projects29
BEAVERUnder 49.5, leanleanUVA +12.5, leanleanBEAVER gives WAKE 78% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Virginia
Wake Forest

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Under 49.5, lean3.7 points off the line
  • UVA +12.5 lean, 0.6 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (UVA–WAKE)17–29–
SpreadWAKE −11.9WAKE −12.5UVA +12.5
Total45.849.5Under 49.5
WAKE win chance78%−520
UVA by 14+
5%
UVA by 1–13
17%
WAKE by 1–13
33%
WAKE by 14+
45%

Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Virginia (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened WAKE −13.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.002 #67Offense EPA / play+0.145 #18
−0.002 #54Defense EPA / play allowed−0.097 #18
+0.4% #69Offense success rate+4.8% #23
−1.6% #43Defense success rate allowed−3.1% #29
+0.125 #28Rushing EPA / play+0.176 #13
−0.060 #78Passing EPA / play+0.150 #22
+0.012 #68Rush defense EPA allowed−0.092 #24
+0.054 #72Pass defense EPA allowed−0.120 #20
−2.6 #78Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.9 #28
−5.5 #26Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.7 #15
Situational
−7.8% #121Passing-down success (3rd & long)+7.8% #9
−6.5% #10Passing-down success allowed−2.7% #37
+0.05 #64Points per drive+1.24 #10
−0.55 #33Points per drive allowed−0.82 #19
Trenches
+0.50 #10Line yards per rush+0.25 #42
+0.07 #76Line yards per rush allowed−0.40 #14
−5.9% #11Runs stuffed at the line−2.6% #57
−1.7% #94Opponent runs stuffed+9.5% #3
−3.0% #36Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.5% #15
+0.1% #52Havoc created−0.1% #60
Big plays
+0.021 #65Rushing explosiveness+0.030 #60
−0.077 #129Passing explosiveness+0.172 #46
−0.55 #121Open-field yards per rush−0.07 #60
+0.049 #86Pass explosiveness allowed−0.309 #1
Style and schedule
60% #30Run rate55% #78
−4.4 #60Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−1.7 #38

Virginia: last 5 games

L16-19
vsDuke
Missed
L13-23
atSMU
Push
W28-25
vsSyracuse
Missed
L7-38
atFlorida State
Missed
W42-3
vsDelaware
Covered

Wake Forest: last 5 games

W41-7
atCalifornia
Covered
W38-14
atNC State
Covered
W57-3
vsStanford
Covered
W30-27
atLouisville
Covered
L20-33
vsMiami
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.05+0.12+0.19+0.26Entering week123456789Virginia · 1: +0.03Virginia · 2: +0.14Virginia · 3: +0.18Virginia · 4: +0.09Virginia · 5: +0.10Virginia · 6: +0.03Virginia · 7: +0.01Virginia · 8: +0.01Virginia · 9: −0.00Wake Forest · 1: +0.05Wake Forest · 2: +0.12Wake Forest · 3: +0.12Wake Forest · 4: +0.11Wake Forest · 5: +0.14Wake Forest · 6: +0.17Wake Forest · 7: +0.19Wake Forest · 8: +0.24Wake Forest · 9: +0.24
● Virginia● Wake Forest