College football scores › Week 9 › Stanford at Louisville
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, 71°, wind 6 mph
BEAVERLOU −22.5, best betbest betOver 61.5, leanleanBEAVER gives LOU 95% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Stanford
Louisville
StanfordLouisvilleBEAVER’s card
Best betLOU −22.5, best bet4.8 points off the line
- Over 61.5 lean, 0.5 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (STAN–LOU) | 17–45 | – | |
| Spread | LOU −27.3 | LOU −22.5 | LOU −22.5 |
| Total | 62.0 | 61.5 | Over 61.5 |
| LOU win chance | 95% | −2100 |
STAN by 14+
1%
STAN by 1–13
4%
LOU by 1–13
16%
LOU by 14+
79%
Spread: 4.8 pts better than Vegas for Louisville (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened LOU −21.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.008 #70Offense EPA / play+0.148 #17
+0.169 #126Defense EPA / play allowed−0.052 #34
−3.1% #100Offense success rate+5.3% #21
+4.2% #105Defense success rate allowed−2.4% #37
+0.015 #79Rushing EPA / play+0.148 #24
−0.034 #70Passing EPA / play+0.173 #15
+0.191 #131Rush defense EPA allowed−0.070 #32
+0.135 #100Pass defense EPA allowed+0.031 #62
−6.0 #104Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+8.9 #10
+6.9 #114Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.2 #54
Situational
−8.9% #128Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.3% #53
+7.7% #131Passing-down success allowed−4.2% #22
−0.62 #101Points per drive+0.47 #40
+0.90 #115Points per drive allowed−0.53 #34
Trenches
+0.02 #80Line yards per rush−0.02 #93
+0.36 #122Line yards per rush allowed+0.12 #87
+0.2% #103Runs stuffed at the line+0.5% #108
−4.2% #122Opponent runs stuffed−5.7% #133
−2.8% #38Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.7% #115
−3.2% #124Havoc created+0.4% #47
Big plays
+0.033 #56Rushing explosiveness+0.253 #5
+0.102 #75Passing explosiveness+0.184 #39
−0.41 #105Open-field yards per rush+1.43 #1
−0.022 #54Pass explosiveness allowed+0.148 #130
Style and schedule
50% #124Run rate58% #41
+1.7 #21Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+1.2 #24
Stanford: last 5 games
| W31-28 | Covered | |
| W34-7 | Missed | |
| L7-58 | Missed | |
| L3-57 | Missed | |
| W34-27 | Covered |
Louisville: last 5 games
| W34-26 | Missed | |
| W44-20 | Covered | |
| L28-31 | Missed | |
| L27-30 | Missed | |
| W41-31 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSTANLOU
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The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyStanfordLouisville
StanfordLouisvilleLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LOU −22.5 | 61.5 | STAN +1100 · LOU −2100 |
| BEAVER fair line | LOU −27.3 | 62.0 | STAN +2010 · LOU −2010 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| STAN | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 2-3 | Conference | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-5 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 19.9 / 35.5 | Points for / against | 38.7 / 27.4 |
| -15.6 | Avg margin | +11.3 |
| -7.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.1 |
| 52.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.6 |