BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Miami at North Carolina
MiamiNo. 17-0away
BEAVER projects38
Kenan Stadium, 58°, wind 6 mph
North Carolina4-3home
BEAVER projects19
BEAVEROver 52.5, best betbest betMIA −14.5, best betbest betBEAVER gives MIA 88% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Miami
North Carolina

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
Over 52.5, best bet4.8 points off the line
  • MIA −14.5 best bet, 4.5 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (MIA–UNC)38–19–
SpreadMIA −19.0MIA −14.5MIA −14.5
Total57.352.5Over 52.5
UNC win chance12%+490
MIA by 14+
62%
MIA by 1–13
26%
UNC by 1–13
10%
UNC by 14+
2%

Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Miami (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (49% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.277 #1Offense EPA / play+0.044 #41
−0.072 #29Defense EPA / play allowed−0.039 #40
+10.1% #3Offense success rate+5.0% #22
−3.5% #28Defense success rate allowed+1.1% #77
+0.149 #23Rushing EPA / play+0.071 #45
+0.402 #1Passing EPA / play+0.067 #40
−0.195 #3Rush defense EPA allowed−0.006 #59
+0.015 #57Pass defense EPA allowed−0.042 #38
+16.8 #1Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.4 #66
−7.6 #16Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−4.6 #33
Situational
+8.7% #8Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.1% #50
−1.9% #45Passing-down success allowed−5.5% #13
+2.75 #1Points per drive+0.04 #65
−0.75 #24Points per drive allowed−0.66 #27
Trenches
+0.64 #3Line yards per rush+0.37 #27
−0.41 #12Line yards per rush allowed+0.09 #79
−10.1% #1Runs stuffed at the line−5.4% #18
+1.3% #54Opponent runs stuffed−6.7% #136
−6.9% #4Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.2% #30
−0.6% #71Havoc created−2.2% #107
Big plays
+0.033 #55Rushing explosiveness−0.056 #100
+0.177 #43Passing explosiveness+0.041 #98
+0.09 #39Open-field yards per rush−0.30 #92
+0.016 #72Pass explosiveness allowed−0.136 #14
Style and schedule
53% #95Run rate54% #88
−6.9 #76Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+2.6 #15

Miami: last 5 games

W52-23
vsPittsburgh
Covered
W43-35
vsFlorida State
Missed
W41-13
atClemson
Covered
W52-3
vsCentral Michigan
Covered
W33-20
atWake Forest
Missed

North Carolina: last 5 games

L30-31
vsSyracuse
Missed
W24-20
atDuke
Covered
W21-17
atPittsburgh
Covered
L26-37
vsNotre Dame
Covered
L20-28
atClemson
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.09+0.04+0.18+0.31+0.45Entering week123456789Miami · 1: +0.26Miami · 2: +0.31Miami · 3: +0.36Miami · 4: +0.35Miami · 5: +0.37Miami · 6: +0.41Miami · 7: +0.41Miami · 8: +0.38Miami · 9: +0.35North Carolina · 1: −0.06North Carolina · 2: +0.00North Carolina · 3: +0.04North Carolina · 4: −0.01North Carolina · 5: +0.02North Carolina · 6: +0.06North Carolina · 7: +0.11North Carolina · 8: +0.11North Carolina · 9: +0.08
● Miami● North Carolina