College football scores › Week 9 › Clemson at Florida State
Doak Campbell Stadium, 77°, wind 7 mph
BEAVEROver 49.5, leanleanFSU −6, leanleanBEAVER gives FSU 65% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Clemson
Florida State
ClemsonFlorida StateBEAVER’s card
LeanOver 49.5, lean2.9 points off the line
- FSU −6 lean, 0.3 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CLEM–FSU) | 23–29 | – | |
| Spread | FSU −6.3 | FSU −6 | FSU −6 |
| Total | 52.4 | 49.5 | Over 49.5 |
| FSU win chance | 65% | −218 |
CLEM by 14+
10%
CLEM by 1–13
25%
FSU by 1–13
34%
FSU by 14+
31%
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Florida State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened CLEM −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.110 #111Offense EPA / play+0.118 #21
−0.112 #16Defense EPA / play allowed+0.075 #88
−3.1% #99Offense success rate+3.5% #31
−4.0% #24Defense success rate allowed−0.3% #56
+0.023 #74Rushing EPA / play+0.204 #10
−0.211 #120Passing EPA / play+0.083 #37
+0.038 #80Rush defense EPA allowed+0.038 #81
−0.251 #2Pass defense EPA allowed+0.072 #82
−3.4 #83Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.0 #31
−5.4 #27Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.8 #46
Situational
−1.0% #62Passing-down success (3rd & long)+7.4% #10
+0.4% #69Passing-down success allowed−2.1% #43
−0.10 #71Points per drive+0.51 #37
−0.57 #30Points per drive allowed−0.48 #36
Trenches
+0.01 #86Line yards per rush+0.64 #2
+0.14 #92Line yards per rush allowed+0.19 #100
+2.1% #122Runs stuffed at the line−7.4% #6
−0.3% #76Opponent runs stuffed−2.0% #97
+0.6% #113Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.2% #31
+2.6% #20Havoc created−1.3% #86
Big plays
+0.023 #64Rushing explosiveness+0.108 #25
−0.143 #136Passing explosiveness+0.428 #3
−0.09 #67Open-field yards per rush+0.21 #30
−0.019 #56Pass explosiveness allowed+0.003 #65
Style and schedule
53% #99Run rate61% #18
+1.0 #25Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+3.2 #12
Clemson: last 5 games
| L16-20 | Missed | |
| W37-0 | Missed | |
| L13-41 | Missed | |
| W24-10 | Covered | |
| W28-20 | Covered |
Florida State: last 5 games
| L35-43 | Covered | |
| L20-44 | Missed | |
| W38-7 | Covered | |
| W34-7 | Missed | |
| L36-50 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCLEMFSU
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The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyClemsonFlorida State
ClemsonFlorida StateLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | FSU −6 | 49.5 | CLEM +180 · FSU −218 |
| BEAVER fair line | FSU −6.3 | 52.4 | CLEM +188 · FSU −188 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CLEM | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 3-3-1 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 21.4 / 21.3 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 27.9 |
| +0.1 | Avg margin | +3.7 |
| -6.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.4 |
| 60.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.3 |