College football scores › Week 9 › Boston College at Duke
Wallace Wade Stadium, 68°, wind 8 mph
BEAVERDUKE −7, leanleanOver 47.5, leanleanBEAVER gives DUKE 73% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Boston College
Duke
Boston CollegeDukeBEAVER’s card
LeanDUKE −7, lean2.6 points off the line
- Over 47.5 lean, 0.4 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BC–DUKE) | 19–29 | – | |
| Spread | DUKE −9.6 | DUKE −7 | DUKE −7 |
| Total | 47.9 | 47.5 | Over 47.5 |
| DUKE win chance | 73% | −278 |
BC by 14+
7%
BC by 1–13
20%
DUKE by 1–13
34%
DUKE by 14+
39%
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Duke (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.103 #109Offense EPA / play+0.018 #54
−0.039 #39Defense EPA / play allowed−0.027 #42
−1.8% #84Offense success rate−1.8% #85
−0.3% #58Defense success rate allowed−1.2% #45
+0.003 #86Rushing EPA / play+0.007 #83
−0.151 #105Passing EPA / play+0.009 #56
+0.014 #69Rush defense EPA allowed−0.114 #19
−0.018 #43Pass defense EPA allowed+0.051 #70
−5.4 #100Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.5 #63
−0.2 #63Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−4.0 #35
Situational
−6.3% #111Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.8% #66
+0.5% #72Passing-down success allowed−4.4% #20
−0.83 #107Points per drive+0.18 #58
−0.20 #47Points per drive allowed−0.31 #41
Trenches
+0.16 #55Line yards per rush+0.01 #84
+0.05 #74Line yards per rush allowed−0.27 #33
+1.8% #119Runs stuffed at the line+0.2% #104
+0.1% #71Opponent runs stuffed+2.9% #33
−0.0% #102Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.5% #25
+0.6% #40Havoc created+0.1% #54
Big plays
+0.012 #71Rushing explosiveness+0.131 #16
+0.174 #45Passing explosiveness+0.090 #83
−0.11 #75Open-field yards per rush−0.09 #66
−0.081 #29Pass explosiveness allowed−0.080 #30
Style and schedule
59% #36Run rate54% #92
−5.8 #72Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.4 #85
Boston College: last 5 games
| W49-27 | Covered | |
| W27-21 | Covered | |
| L16-25 | Covered | |
| L14-21 | Covered | |
| W22-16 | Missed |
Duke: last 5 games
| W19-16 | Covered | |
| L20-24 | Missed | |
| L25-28 | Missed | |
| W62-7 | Covered | |
| W35-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBCDUKE
Loading the thread…
The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyBoston CollegeDuke
Boston CollegeDukeLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | DUKE −7 | 47.5 | BC +225 · DUKE −278 |
| BEAVER fair line | DUKE −9.6 | 47.9 | BC +270 · DUKE −270 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BC | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 24.4 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 29.9 / 16.0 |
| +0.9 | Avg margin | +13.9 |
| +3.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 65.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.1 |