College football scores › Week 9 › SMU at Syracuse
BEAVERUnder 58.5, leanleanSYR +10, leanleanBEAVER gives SMU 73% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
SMU
Syracuse
SMUSyracuseBEAVER’s card
LeanUnder 58.5, lean1.7 points off the line
- SYR +10 lean, 0.3 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SMU–SYR) | 33–24 | – | |
| Spread | SMU −9.7 | SMU −10 | SYR +10 |
| Total | 56.8 | 58.5 | Under 58.5 |
| SYR win chance | 27% | +285 |
SMU by 14+
39%
SMU by 1–13
33%
SYR by 1–13
20%
SYR by 14+
7%
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Syracuse (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened SMU −12.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.070 #32Offense EPA / play−0.061 #90
−0.003 #52Defense EPA / play allowed+0.002 #55
+5.4% #19Offense success rate+0.5% #68
−2.5% #36Defense success rate allowed+0.9% #76
+0.002 #87Rushing EPA / play+0.033 #68
+0.167 #17Passing EPA / play−0.092 #91
−0.001 #62Rush defense EPA allowed+0.047 #83
−0.019 #42Pass defense EPA allowed−0.110 #23
+4.5 #34Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.5 #54
−2.3 #44Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.0 #75
Situational
+6.1% #16Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.9% #60
−4.6% #18Passing-down success allowed−0.6% #57
+0.59 #30Points per drive+0.19 #56
−0.10 #54Points per drive allowed+0.13 #70
Trenches
−0.10 #109Line yards per rush−0.27 #127
−0.29 #28Line yards per rush allowed−0.37 #17
+2.4% #126Runs stuffed at the line+1.0% #113
+1.9% #47Opponent runs stuffed+6.2% #7
−2.7% #39Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.2% #74
+2.3% #23Havoc created+1.4% #29
Big plays
−0.061 #103Rushing explosiveness+0.057 #45
+0.171 #48Passing explosiveness+0.128 #65
−0.20 #81Open-field yards per rush−0.06 #58
+0.119 #119Pass explosiveness allowed−0.155 #12
Style and schedule
53% #104Run rate55% #73
−6.5 #74Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.2 #68
SMU: last 5 games
| W59-20 | Covered | |
| W23-13 | Push | |
| W25-16 | Missed | |
| W34-24 | Missed | |
| L31-41 | Missed |
Syracuse: last 5 games
| W31-30 | Covered | |
| L26-34 | Covered | |
| L25-28 | Covered | |
| W42-41 | Missed | |
| L13-27 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSMUSYR
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneySMUSyracuse
SMUSyracuseLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | SMU −10 | 58.5 | SMU −360 · SYR +285 |
| BEAVER fair line | SMU −9.7 | 56.8 | SMU −265 · SYR +265 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| SMU | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 4-1 | Conference | 1-4 |
| 5-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-2 |
| 2-3-2 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 36.4 / 21.1 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 26.3 |
| +15.3 | Avg margin | +5.3 |
| -0.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.4 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 78.1 |