College football scores › Week 9 › California at NC State
Carter-Finley Stadium, 69°, wind 9 mph
BEAVERNCSU −7, best betbest betOver 56.5, leanleanBEAVER gives NCSU 81% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
California
NC State
CaliforniaNC StateBEAVER’s card
Best betNCSU −7, best bet7.2 points off the line
- Over 56.5 lean, 4.0 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CAL–NCSU) | 23–37 | – | |
| Spread | NCSU −14.2 | NCSU −7 | NCSU −7 |
| Total | 60.5 | 56.5 | Over 56.5 |
| NCSU win chance | 81% | −278 |
CAL by 14+
4%
CAL by 1–13
15%
NCSU by 1–13
30%
NCSU by 14+
50%
Spread: 7.2 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened NCSU −8.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.099 #104Offense EPA / play+0.075 #30
+0.112 #106Defense EPA / play allowed+0.103 #102
−3.3% #101Offense success rate+2.4% #44
+0.2% #68Defense success rate allowed+2.2% #85
−0.088 #120Rushing EPA / play−0.044 #107
−0.060 #79Passing EPA / play+0.188 #13
+0.196 #133Rush defense EPA allowed−0.017 #51
+0.061 #73Pass defense EPA allowed+0.222 #122
−4.2 #87Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.2 #42
+6.8 #111Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.5 #84
Situational
−2.7% #75Passing-down success (3rd & long)+6.1% #15
−3.3% #28Passing-down success allowed+1.7% #90
−0.55 #93Points per drive+0.70 #28
+0.76 #111Points per drive allowed+0.43 #90
Trenches
−0.25 #123Line yards per rush−0.10 #108
+0.43 #124Line yards per rush allowed−0.12 #49
+0.3% #106Runs stuffed at the line+0.9% #111
−6.7% #137Opponent runs stuffed+2.9% #30
−0.5% #96Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.8% #56
−3.1% #122Havoc created−1.3% #88
Big plays
−0.025 #86Rushing explosiveness−0.105 #120
+0.058 #93Passing explosiveness+0.136 #59
−0.59 #125Open-field yards per rush−0.11 #76
+0.218 #133Pass explosiveness allowed+0.089 #102
Style and schedule
44% #137Run rate55% #74
−3.1 #48Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.4 #70
California: last 5 games
| L20-59 | Missed | |
| L7-41 | Missed | |
| W25-20 | Covered | |
| L31-39 | Missed | |
| L10-24 | Missed |
NC State: last 5 games
| L28-31 | Missed | |
| L14-38 | Missed | |
| W31-28 | Covered | |
| W41-31 | Missed | |
| L31-35 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCALNCSU
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The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyCaliforniaNC State
CaliforniaNC StateLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NCSU −7 | 56.5 | CAL +225 · NCSU −278 |
| BEAVER fair line | NCSU −14.2 | 60.5 | CAL +423 · NCSU −423 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CAL | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-3 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 2-3 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-6 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 3-5 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 23.4 / 31.6 | Points for / against | 32.3 / 28.1 |
| -8.2 | Avg margin | +4.1 |
| -9.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.1 |
| 63.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.6 |