College football scores › Week 7 › Elon at Stanford
BEAVER ELON +35.5, wonBEAVER Under 56.5, wonBEAVER had STAN 97% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ELON–STAN) | 12–42 | – | 7–34 | |
| Spread | STAN −29.8 | STAN −35.5 | STAN by 27 | ELON +35.5 ✓ |
| Total | 53.9 | 56.5 | 41 | Under 56.5 ✓ |
| STAN win chance | 97% | – | Won |
ELON by 14+
0%
ELON by 1–13
3%
STAN by 1–13
13%
STAN by 14+
84%
Spread: 5.7 pts better than Vegas for Elon (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.419Offense EPA / play−0.031 #86
+0.239Defense EPA / play allowed+0.166 #124
−14.7%Offense success rate−4.2% #108
+7.3%Defense success rate allowed+3.9% #101
−0.303Rushing EPA / play−0.052 #105
−0.447Passing EPA / play+0.002 #56
+0.131Rush defense EPA allowed+0.159 #129
+0.294Pass defense EPA allowed+0.150 #103
−22.0Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.8 #98
+13.6Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.3 #121
Situational
−15.0%Passing-down success (3rd & long)−9.4% #127
+4.4%Passing-down success allowed+9.0% #132
−3.19Points per drive−0.68 #98
+1.79Points per drive allowed+0.98 #116
Trenches
−0.92Line yards per rush−0.12 #104
+0.32Line yards per rush allowed+0.26 #108
+9.7%Runs stuffed at the line+1.6% #113
−0.4%Opponent runs stuffed−3.7% #121
+6.7%Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.2% #49
−4.9%Havoc created−1.7% #98
Big plays
−0.136Rushing explosiveness−0.036 #93
+0.437Passing explosiveness+0.184 #41
−0.88Open-field yards per rush−0.26 #84
−0.026Pass explosiveness allowed+0.006 #64
Style and schedule
56%Run rate52% #110
n/aStrength of schedule (avg opponent)+8.5 #4
Elon: last games
No games yet.
Stanford: last 5 games
| L7-58 | Missed | |
| L3-57 | Missed | |
| W34-27 | Covered | |
| L7-35 | Missed | |
| L6-45 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekELONSTAN
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | STAN −35.5 | 56.5 | – |
| BEAVER fair line | STAN −29.8 | 53.9 | ELON +3095 · STAN −3095 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ELON | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Home | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-5 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 6-2 |
| 7.0 / 34.0 | Points for / against | 19.9 / 35.5 |
| -27.0 | Avg margin | -15.6 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.9 |
| 58.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.6 |