BEAVER
College football scores › Week 10 › Iowa State at Baylor
Iowa State3-4away
BEAVER projects19
McLane Stadium, 53°, wind 4 mph
Baylor4-3home
BEAVER projects31
BEAVERBEAVER gives BAY 78% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Iowa State–––
Baylor–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (ISU–BAY)19–31–
SpreadBAY −12.2No line
Total49.2–
BAY win chance78%–
ISU by 14+
5%
ISU by 1–13
17%
BAY by 1–13
33%
BAY by 14+
46%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.021 #76Offense EPA / play+0.014 #57
+0.013 #64Defense EPA / play allowed−0.087 #22
−2.0% #86Offense success rate−1.1% #80
−0.3% #57Defense success rate allowed−3.7% #26
+0.050 #60Rushing EPA / play+0.029 #71
−0.067 #83Passing EPA / play−0.014 #65
−0.008 #58Rush defense EPA allowed−0.111 #20
+0.027 #59Pass defense EPA allowed−0.108 #24
−0.7 #70Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.3 #56
−1.7 #47Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−4.1 #34
Situational
−5.9% #108Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.1% #46
−2.7% #36Passing-down success allowed−3.2% #30
−0.15 #73Points per drive−0.01 #68
−0.22 #45Points per drive allowed−0.58 #29
Trenches
+0.14 #59Line yards per rush+0.09 #71
+0.03 #73Line yards per rush allowed−0.10 #55
−0.5% #91Runs stuffed at the line−4.3% #34
−1.5% #89Opponent runs stuffed+1.8% #49
+0.1% #106Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.2% #49
−0.6% #73Havoc created+2.0% #25
Big plays
+0.107 #26Rushing explosiveness+0.069 #43
+0.029 #102Passing explosiveness+0.279 #13
+0.15 #32Open-field yards per rush−0.05 #55
+0.102 #110Pass explosiveness allowed−0.135 #16
Style and schedule
60% #29Run rate49% #125
+0.2 #29Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.0 #64

Iowa State: last 5 games

L3-39
atArizona
Missed
L10-24
atBYU
Missed
W45-42
vsWest Virginia
Push
L17-31
vsUtah
Missed
W55-7
vsBowling Green
Covered

Baylor: last 5 games

L24-25
atKansas
Covered
L6-17
vsTCU
Missed
W55-19
atArizona State
Covered
W23-13
vsColorado
Covered
W36-19
vsLouisiana Tech
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.04−0.01+0.03+0.07+0.11Entering week12345678910Iowa State · 1: −0.01Iowa State · 2: −0.01Iowa State · 3: +0.07Iowa State · 4: +0.09Iowa State · 5: +0.02Iowa State · 6: −0.01Iowa State · 7: −0.01Iowa State · 8: −0.01Iowa State · 9: −0.03Iowa State · 10: −0.03Baylor · 1: +0.01Baylor · 2: +0.04Baylor · 3: +0.09Baylor · 4: +0.04Baylor · 5: +0.05Baylor · 6: +0.10Baylor · 7: +0.09Baylor · 8: +0.09Baylor · 9: +0.10Baylor · 10: +0.10
● Iowa State● Baylor