BEAVER
College football scores › Week 10 › BYU at Utah
BYUNo. 86-1away
BEAVER projects24
Rice-Eccles Stadium, 59°, wind 10 mph
UtahNo. 67-0home
BEAVER projects29
BEAVEROver 51.5, leanleanUTAH −3, leanleanBEAVER gives UTAH 61% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
BYU
Utah

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Over 51.5, lean1.7 points off the line
  • UTAH −3 lean, 1.4 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (BYU–UTAH)24–29–
SpreadUTAH −4.4UTAH −3UTAH −3
Total53.251.5Over 51.5
UTAH win chance61%−142
BYU by 14+
12%
BYU by 1–13
27%
UTAH by 1–13
34%
UTAH by 14+
27%

Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for Utah (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.181 #10Offense EPA / play+0.158 #15
−0.080 #25Defense EPA / play allowed−0.081 #24
+6.7% #14Offense success rate+8.0% #9
−3.8% #25Defense success rate allowed−5.4% #16
+0.236 #1Rushing EPA / play+0.234 #2
+0.149 #23Passing EPA / play+0.086 #36
−0.044 #40Rush defense EPA allowed−0.039 #43
−0.115 #22Pass defense EPA allowed−0.116 #21
+4.9 #32Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+8.1 #11
−7.3 #21Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.5 #18
Situational
−0.4% #54Passing-down success (3rd & long)+10.1% #5
−0.4% #59Passing-down success allowed−2.6% #39
+0.51 #35Points per drive+1.12 #13
−0.76 #22Points per drive allowed−0.69 #26
Trenches
+0.42 #19Line yards per rush+0.54 #8
−0.14 #44Line yards per rush allowed−0.23 #34
−3.5% #43Runs stuffed at the line−1.5% #74
+2.3% #44Opponent runs stuffed+4.2% #20
−7.5% #2Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.3% #46
+1.6% #27Havoc created+1.0% #36
Big plays
+0.129 #18Rushing explosiveness+0.180 #10
+0.022 #104Passing explosiveness−0.025 #120
−0.07 #61Open-field yards per rush+0.35 #18
−0.077 #31Pass explosiveness allowed+0.092 #103
Style and schedule
60% #31Run rate57% #49
−0.9 #33Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.4 #59

BYU: last 5 games

L31-39
atUCF
Missed
W28-24
vsNotre Dame
Covered
W24-10
vsIowa State
Covered
W17-10
atTCU
Covered
W41-23
atColorado State
Covered

Utah: last 5 games

W21-13
vsHouston
Covered
W27-24
atColorado
Missed
W41-24
vsKansas
Covered
W31-17
atIowa State
Covered
W33-0
vsUtah State
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.06+0.15+0.23+0.32Entering week12345678910BYU · 1: +0.12BYU · 2: +0.20BYU · 3: +0.22BYU · 4: +0.28BYU · 5: +0.30BYU · 6: +0.27BYU · 7: +0.28BYU · 8: +0.29BYU · 9: +0.26BYU · 10: +0.26Utah · 1: +0.16Utah · 2: +0.11Utah · 3: +0.14Utah · 4: +0.14Utah · 5: +0.24Utah · 6: +0.24Utah · 7: +0.25Utah · 8: +0.21Utah · 9: +0.24Utah · 10: +0.24
● BYU● Utah