BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Utah at Cincinnati
UtahNo. 67-0away
BEAVER projects34
Nippert Stadium, 65°, wind 6 mph
Cincinnati5-2home
BEAVER projects25
BEAVERUTAH −6.5, leanleanOver 56.5, leanleanBEAVER gives UTAH 72% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Utah
Cincinnati

BEAVER’s card

Lean
UTAH −6.5, lean2.7 points off the line
  • Over 56.5 lean, 1.9 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (UTAH–CIN)34–25–
SpreadUTAH −9.2UTAH −6.5UTAH −6.5
Total58.456.5Over 56.5
CIN win chance28%+210
UTAH by 14+
38%
UTAH by 1–13
33%
CIN by 1–13
21%
CIN by 14+
8%

Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for Utah (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened UTAH −9.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.158 #15Offense EPA / play+0.132 #19
−0.081 #24Defense EPA / play allowed+0.091 #93
+8.0% #9Offense success rate+3.3% #36
−5.4% #16Defense success rate allowed+3.1% #94
+0.234 #2Rushing EPA / play+0.173 #16
+0.086 #36Passing EPA / play+0.090 #33
−0.039 #43Rush defense EPA allowed+0.063 #88
−0.116 #21Pass defense EPA allowed+0.167 #105
+8.1 #11Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+4.2 #36
−7.5 #18Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.6 #67
Situational
+10.1% #5Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.7% #36
−2.6% #39Passing-down success allowed+1.6% #88
+1.12 #13Points per drive+0.38 #48
−0.69 #26Points per drive allowed+0.21 #74
Trenches
+0.54 #8Line yards per rush+0.48 #11
−0.23 #34Line yards per rush allowed+0.28 #114
−1.5% #74Runs stuffed at the line−4.5% #27
+4.2% #20Opponent runs stuffed−2.3% #100
−2.3% #46Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.0% #11
+1.0% #36Havoc created+0.3% #50
Big plays
+0.180 #10Rushing explosiveness+0.217 #7
−0.025 #120Passing explosiveness+0.072 #89
+0.35 #18Open-field yards per rush+0.54 #10
+0.092 #103Pass explosiveness allowed−0.103 #24
Style and schedule
57% #49Run rate61% #19
−4.4 #59Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.0 #47

Utah: last 5 games

W21-13
vsHouston
Covered
W27-24
atColorado
Missed
W41-24
vsKansas
Covered
W31-17
atIowa State
Covered
W33-0
vsUtah State
Covered

Cincinnati: last 5 games

W37-24
vsTexas Tech
Covered
L42-45
atWest Virginia
Missed
L7-34
atArizona
Missed
W31-26
vsKansas State
Covered
W35-31
vsMiami (OH)
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.04+0.12+0.19+0.27Entering week123456789Utah · 1: +0.16Utah · 2: +0.11Utah · 3: +0.14Utah · 4: +0.14Utah · 5: +0.24Utah · 6: +0.24Utah · 7: +0.25Utah · 8: +0.21Utah · 9: +0.24Cincinnati · 1: +0.01Cincinnati · 2: +0.05Cincinnati · 3: +0.04Cincinnati · 4: −0.01Cincinnati · 5: +0.02Cincinnati · 6: −0.01Cincinnati · 7: −0.01Cincinnati · 8: +0.01Cincinnati · 9: +0.04
● Utah● Cincinnati