College football scores › Week 9 › Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Jack Trice Stadium, 52°, wind 10 mph
BEAVERISU +8.5, best betbest betUnder 57.5, leanleanBEAVER gives OKST 60% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Oklahoma State
Iowa State
Oklahoma StateIowa StateBEAVER’s card
Best betISU +8.5, best bet4.5 points off the line
- Under 57.5 lean, 3.9 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (OKST–ISU) | 29–25 | – | |
| Spread | OKST −4.0 | OKST −8.5 | ISU +8.5 |
| Total | 53.6 | 57.5 | Under 57.5 |
| ISU win chance | 40% | +270 |
OKST by 14+
26%
OKST by 1–13
33%
ISU by 1–13
27%
ISU by 14+
13%
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Iowa State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened OKST −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.068 #34Offense EPA / play−0.021 #76
+0.012 #63Defense EPA / play allowed+0.013 #64
+6.3% #16Offense success rate−2.0% #86
+0.2% #69Defense success rate allowed−0.3% #57
+0.045 #62Rushing EPA / play+0.050 #60
+0.124 #27Passing EPA / play−0.067 #83
−0.040 #42Rush defense EPA allowed−0.008 #58
−0.014 #44Pass defense EPA allowed+0.027 #59
+7.0 #17Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.7 #70
−0.5 #60Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.7 #47
Situational
+1.3% #42Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.9% #108
−4.1% #23Passing-down success allowed−2.7% #36
+0.92 #21Points per drive−0.15 #73
−0.14 #50Points per drive allowed−0.22 #45
Trenches
+0.37 #28Line yards per rush+0.14 #59
−0.09 #59Line yards per rush allowed+0.03 #73
−5.5% #16Runs stuffed at the line−0.5% #91
+3.5% #26Opponent runs stuffed−1.5% #89
−4.6% #14Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.1% #106
+0.1% #53Havoc created−0.6% #73
Big plays
−0.185 #133Rushing explosiveness+0.107 #26
+0.100 #77Passing explosiveness+0.029 #102
−0.02 #53Open-field yards per rush+0.15 #32
+0.084 #100Pass explosiveness allowed+0.102 #110
Style and schedule
53% #98Run rate60% #29
−3.6 #53Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+0.2 #29
Oklahoma State: last 5 games
| W57-24 | Covered | |
| L32-35 | Covered | |
| W42-28 | Covered | |
| W41-24 | Covered | |
| W59-0 | Covered |
Iowa State: last 5 games
| L3-39 | Missed | |
| L10-24 | Missed | |
| W45-42 | Push | |
| L17-31 | Missed | |
| W55-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekOKSTISU
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyOklahoma StateIowa State
Oklahoma StateIowa StateLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | OKST −8.5 | 57.5 | OKST −340 · ISU +270 |
| BEAVER fair line | OKST −4 | 53.6 | OKST −149 · ISU +149 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| OKST | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 6-1 | Against the spread | 2-4-1 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 40.0 / 23.7 | Points for / against | 25.9 / 24.1 |
| +16.3 | Avg margin | +1.7 |
| +7.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 67.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.4 |