College football scores › Week 9 › Kansas State at Colorado
BEAVEROver 47.5, leanleanKSU −2.5, leanleanBEAVER gives KSU 60% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Kansas State
Colorado
Kansas StateColoradoBEAVER’s card
LeanOver 47.5, lean2.7 points off the line
- KSU −2.5 lean, 1.7 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (KSU–COLO) | 27–23 | – | |
| Spread | KSU −4.2 | KSU −2.5 | KSU −2.5 |
| Total | 50.2 | 47.5 | Over 47.5 |
| COLO win chance | 40% | +114 |
KSU by 14+
27%
KSU by 1–13
34%
COLO by 1–13
27%
COLO by 14+
12%
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Kansas State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened KSU −3.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.008 #65Offense EPA / play−0.053 #87
+0.041 #74Defense EPA / play allowed−0.055 #33
+1.4% #57Offense success rate−1.1% #79
−2.7% #32Defense success rate allowed−4.0% #23
+0.065 #48Rushing EPA / play−0.113 #128
−0.053 #77Passing EPA / play+0.022 #51
+0.122 #110Rush defense EPA allowed−0.125 #16
+0.042 #65Pass defense EPA allowed+0.068 #81
+1.2 #57Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.4 #99
−0.6 #59Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.5 #66
Situational
+1.3% #43Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.6% #64
+1.4% #82Passing-down success allowed−0.1% #63
+0.46 #41Points per drive−0.50 #90
−0.03 #58Points per drive allowed−0.06 #56
Trenches
+0.16 #54Line yards per rush−0.03 #96
+0.07 #77Line yards per rush allowed−0.30 #24
−2.7% #55Runs stuffed at the line−0.6% #89
+1.3% #55Opponent runs stuffed+5.5% #14
−3.5% #26Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.3% #99
+2.8% #18Havoc created+3.4% #12
Big plays
+0.005 #74Rushing explosiveness−0.168 #129
+0.019 #107Passing explosiveness+0.201 #33
+0.56 #8Open-field yards per rush−0.34 #98
+0.051 #88Pass explosiveness allowed+0.227 #135
Style and schedule
56% #59Run rate55% #71
−7.4 #79Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+2.4 #18
Kansas State: last 5 games
| L17-28 | Missed | |
| W35-24 | Covered | |
| L16-35 | Missed | |
| L26-31 | Missed | |
| W31-20 | Missed |
Colorado: last 5 games
| L24-57 | Missed | |
| L24-27 | Covered | |
| L7-29 | Missed | |
| L13-23 | Missed | |
| L7-41 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekKSUCOLO
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyKansas StateColorado
Kansas StateColoradoLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | KSU −2.5 | 47.5 | KSU −135 · COLO +114 |
| BEAVER fair line | KSU −4.2 | 50.2 | KSU −153 · COLO +153 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| KSU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 0-4 |
| 4-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-3 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 32.9 / 21.1 | Points for / against | 20.1 / 30.1 |
| +11.7 | Avg margin | -10.0 |
| -1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.9 |
| 63.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.9 |