College football scores › Week 9 › Baylor at UCF
BEAVEROver 47.5, best betbest betBAY +1.5, leanleanBEAVER gives UCF 53% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Baylor
UCF
BaylorUCFBEAVER’s card
Best betOver 47.5, best bet4.5 points off the line
- BAY +1.5 lean, 0.3 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BAY–UCF) | 25–27 | – | |
| Spread | UCF −1.2 | UCF −1.5 | BAY +1.5 |
| Total | 52.0 | 47.5 | Over 47.5 |
| UCF win chance | 53% | −118 |
BAY by 14+
17%
BAY by 1–13
30%
UCF by 1–13
32%
UCF by 14+
21%
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Baylor (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.5 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.014 #57Offense EPA / play−0.002 #66
−0.087 #22Defense EPA / play allowed−0.076 #27
−1.1% #80Offense success rate+1.2% #61
−3.7% #26Defense success rate allowed−2.5% #35
+0.029 #71Rushing EPA / play+0.015 #78
−0.014 #65Passing EPA / play+0.003 #58
−0.111 #20Rush defense EPA allowed−0.083 #26
−0.108 #24Pass defense EPA allowed−0.076 #33
+1.3 #56Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.4 #41
−4.1 #34Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.1 #45
Situational
+1.1% #46Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.1% #34
−3.2% #30Passing-down success allowed−3.8% #24
−0.01 #68Points per drive+0.42 #45
−0.58 #29Points per drive allowed−0.37 #39
Trenches
+0.09 #71Line yards per rush−0.13 #113
−0.10 #55Line yards per rush allowed−0.42 #11
−4.3% #34Runs stuffed at the line−0.9% #83
+1.8% #49Opponent runs stuffed+0.5% #62
−2.2% #49Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.0% #34
+2.0% #25Havoc created+0.4% #45
Big plays
+0.069 #43Rushing explosiveness−0.015 #83
+0.279 #13Passing explosiveness+0.104 #73
−0.05 #55Open-field yards per rush+0.09 #38
−0.135 #16Pass explosiveness allowed−0.031 #45
Style and schedule
49% #125Run rate56% #64
−5.0 #64Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−1.5 #36
Baylor: last 5 games
| L24-25 | Covered | |
| L6-17 | Missed | |
| W55-19 | Covered | |
| W23-13 | Covered | |
| W36-19 | Missed |
UCF: last 5 games
| W39-31 | Covered | |
| L28-42 | Missed | |
| L17-27 | Covered | |
| W21-13 | Covered | |
| W44-30 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBAYUCF
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyBaylorUCF
BaylorUCFLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UCF −1.5 | 47.5 | BAY −102 · UCF −118 |
| BEAVER fair line | UCF −1.2 | 52.0 | BAY +113 · UCF −113 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BAY | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 29.1 / 16.1 | Points for / against | 32.7 / 23.0 |
| +13.0 | Avg margin | +9.7 |
| +4.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.6 |
| 71.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.9 |