BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Arizona at Texas Tech
ArizonaNo. 226-1away
BEAVER projects23
Jones AT&T Stadium, 67°, wind 13 mph
Texas TechNo. 136-1home
BEAVER projects27
BEAVERUnder 54.5, best betbest betTTU −3.5, leanleanBEAVER gives TTU 60% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Arizona
Texas Tech

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
Under 54.5, best bet4.0 points off the line
  • TTU −3.5 lean, 0.7 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (ARIZ–TTU)23–27–
SpreadTTU −4.2TTU −3.5TTU −3.5
Total50.554.5Under 54.5
TTU win chance60%−166
ARIZ by 14+
12%
ARIZ by 1–13
27%
TTU by 1–13
34%
TTU by 14+
27%

Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for Texas Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts below Vegas (49% historically). Opened TTU −7.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.068 #33Offense EPA / play+0.009 #62
−0.112 #17Defense EPA / play allowed−0.155 #11
+3.7% #28Offense success rate+3.6% #29
−4.7% #21Defense success rate allowed−5.6% #15
+0.049 #61Rushing EPA / play+0.105 #34
+0.169 #16Passing EPA / play+0.012 #55
−0.092 #23Rush defense EPA allowed−0.107 #21
−0.152 #16Pass defense EPA allowed−0.178 #13
+4.4 #35Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.8 #18
−6.8 #24Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.0 #31
Situational
+6.7% #14Passing-down success (3rd & long)+3.3% #28
+0.9% #76Passing-down success allowed−3.0% #34
+0.54 #34Points per drive+0.44 #44
−0.51 #35Points per drive allowed−0.75 #23
Trenches
+0.19 #51Line yards per rush+0.27 #40
−0.28 #32Line yards per rush allowed−0.29 #29
−2.2% #63Runs stuffed at the line−1.3% #76
+2.8% #36Opponent runs stuffed+2.3% #42
−1.5% #66Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.1% #119
+1.2% #33Havoc created+1.3% #32
Big plays
−0.034 #89Rushing explosiveness+0.055 #48
+0.136 #61Passing explosiveness−0.125 #134
−0.32 #95Open-field yards per rush+0.33 #19
+0.100 #109Pass explosiveness allowed−0.033 #43
Style and schedule
51% #122Run rate56% #61
−5.8 #71Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.1 #55

Arizona: last 5 games

W39-3
vsIowa State
Covered
W52-31
atWest Virginia
Covered
W34-7
vsCincinnati
Covered
W34-24
atWashington State
Missed
W42-17
vsNorthern Illinois
Missed

Texas Tech: last 5 games

L24-37
atCincinnati
Missed
W53-25
vsArizona State
Covered
W29-7
atColorado
Covered
W49-14
vsSam Houston
Covered
W28-26
vsHouston
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.05+0.13+0.20+0.28Entering week123456789Arizona · 1: +0.06Arizona · 2: +0.02Arizona · 3: +0.01Arizona · 4: +0.07Arizona · 5: +0.08Arizona · 6: +0.11Arizona · 7: +0.16Arizona · 8: +0.16Arizona · 9: +0.18Texas Tech · 1: +0.26Texas Tech · 2: +0.20Texas Tech · 3: +0.13Texas Tech · 4: +0.11Texas Tech · 5: +0.16Texas Tech · 6: +0.18Texas Tech · 7: +0.18Texas Tech · 8: +0.19Texas Tech · 9: +0.16
● Arizona● Texas Tech