BEAVER
College football scores › Week 10 › Vanderbilt at Mississippi State
Vanderbilt3-5away
BEAVER projects23
Davis Wade Stadium, 58°, wind 3 mph
Mississippi State4-3home
BEAVER projects34
BEAVERBEAVER gives MSST 75% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Vanderbilt–––
Mississippi State–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (VAN–MSST)23–34–
SpreadMSST −10.9No line
Total57.1–
MSST win chance75%–
VAN by 14+
6%
VAN by 1–13
19%
MSST by 1–13
33%
MSST by 14+
42%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.024 #78Offense EPA / play+0.109 #23
+0.012 #62Defense EPA / play allowed+0.011 #60
−0.9% #78Offense success rate+7.4% #13
+0.1% #66Defense success rate allowed+0.9% #75
+0.042 #64Rushing EPA / play+0.154 #21
−0.015 #66Passing EPA / play+0.090 #34
−0.001 #61Rush defense EPA allowed−0.052 #36
+0.031 #61Pass defense EPA allowed+0.037 #64
−2.2 #74Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.6 #22
+0.9 #70Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.9 #57
Situational
−1.8% #67Passing-down success (3rd & long)+3.7% #25
−1.1% #52Passing-down success allowed+0.3% #66
−0.15 #72Points per drive+0.98 #18
+0.28 #78Points per drive allowed−0.12 #51
Trenches
+0.12 #64Line yards per rush+0.52 #9
−0.08 #61Line yards per rush allowed+0.07 #75
−2.2% #65Runs stuffed at the line−3.4% #46
−1.5% #92Opponent runs stuffed−2.3% #102
−1.5% #67Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.1% #32
−1.5% #92Havoc created−0.5% #68
Big plays
+0.114 #24Rushing explosiveness−0.016 #84
+0.097 #78Passing explosiveness+0.120 #68
−0.50 #115Open-field yards per rush+0.27 #23
+0.031 #78Pass explosiveness allowed+0.025 #75
Style and schedule
53% #103Run rate55% #66
+2.9 #13Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+7.6 #5

Vanderbilt: last 5 games

L17-34
atKentucky
Missed
L21-31
vsArkansas
Missed
L17-52
vsOle Miss
Missed
L14-38
atGeorgia
Covered
L15-21
atAuburn
Covered

Mississippi State: last 5 games

L15-23
vsOklahoma
Missed
L0-31
atLSU
Missed
L23-56
vsAlabama
Missed
W31-24
vsMissouri
Covered
W41-34
atSouth Carolina
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.06+0.03+0.12+0.21+0.30Entering week12345678910Vanderbilt · 1: +0.11Vanderbilt · 2: +0.07Vanderbilt · 3: +0.04Vanderbilt · 4: +0.09Vanderbilt · 5: +0.07Vanderbilt · 6: +0.05Vanderbilt · 7: −0.01Vanderbilt · 8: −0.04Vanderbilt · 9: −0.04Vanderbilt · 10: −0.04Mississippi State · 1: +0.01Mississippi State · 2: +0.13Mississippi State · 3: +0.28Mississippi State · 4: +0.25Mississippi State · 5: +0.23Mississippi State · 6: +0.18Mississippi State · 7: +0.18Mississippi State · 8: +0.12Mississippi State · 9: +0.10Mississippi State · 10: +0.10
● Vanderbilt● Mississippi State