BEAVER
College football scores › Week 10 › Georgia at Ole Miss
GeorgiaNo. 36-1away
BEAVER projects34
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, 50°, wind 5 mph
Ole MissNo. 125-2home
BEAVER projects28
BEAVEROver 55.5, best betbest betUGA −4.5, leanleanBEAVER gives UGA 66% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Georgia
Ole Miss

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
Over 55.5, best bet6.5 points off the line
  • UGA −4.5 lean, 2.1 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (UGA–MISS)34–28–
SpreadUGA −6.6UGA −4.5UGA −4.5
Total62.055.5Over 55.5
MISS win chance34%+180
UGA by 14+
33%
UGA by 1–13
33%
MISS by 1–13
24%
MISS by 14+
10%

Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.5 pts above Vegas (54% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.230 #3Offense EPA / play+0.218 #4
−0.091 #19Defense EPA / play allowed−0.010 #47
+12.0% #1Offense success rate+10.1% #4
−6.2% #11Defense success rate allowed−2.0% #42
+0.208 #8Rushing EPA / play+0.217 #5
+0.285 #5Passing EPA / play+0.218 #10
−0.174 #8Rush defense EPA allowed+0.028 #76
−0.092 #27Pass defense EPA allowed−0.086 #29
+14.7 #3Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+11.3 #7
−7.5 #17Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.3 #28
Situational
+10.9% #3Passing-down success (3rd & long)+8.7% #7
−7.5% #8Passing-down success allowed−3.2% #29
+2.45 #3Points per drive+1.42 #8
−0.57 #31Points per drive allowed−0.78 #20
Trenches
+0.73 #1Line yards per rush+0.44 #17
−0.41 #13Line yards per rush allowed−0.21 #36
−7.7% #4Runs stuffed at the line−3.9% #37
−0.9% #81Opponent runs stuffed+4.8% #15
−4.3% #17Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.6% #8
+1.1% #34Havoc created−0.0% #57
Big plays
−0.106 #121Rushing explosiveness+0.125 #21
+0.022 #103Passing explosiveness+0.105 #71
+0.54 #9Open-field yards per rush+0.03 #48
+0.139 #126Pass explosiveness allowed+0.017 #73
Style and schedule
54% #87Run rate51% #119
−2.9 #46Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+6.7 #7

Georgia: last 5 games

L24-27
vsAuburn
Missed
W20-17
atAlabama
Covered
W38-14
vsVanderbilt
Missed
W41-13
vsOklahoma
Covered
W45-17
atArkansas
Covered

Ole Miss: last 5 games

L27-34
atTexas
Missed
W31-3
vsMissouri
Covered
W52-17
atVanderbilt
Covered
L28-52
atFlorida
Missed
W32-24
vsLSU
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.08+0.20+0.31+0.42Entering week12345678910Georgia · 1: +0.32Georgia · 2: +0.27Georgia · 3: +0.35Georgia · 4: +0.34Georgia · 5: +0.36Georgia · 6: +0.36Georgia · 7: +0.39Georgia · 8: +0.32Georgia · 9: +0.32Georgia · 10: +0.32Ole Miss · 1: +0.19Ole Miss · 2: +0.15Ole Miss · 3: +0.09Ole Miss · 4: +0.17Ole Miss · 5: +0.15Ole Miss · 6: +0.13Ole Miss · 7: +0.17Ole Miss · 8: +0.24Ole Miss · 9: +0.23Ole Miss · 10: +0.23
● Georgia● Ole Miss