BEAVER
College football scores › Week 10 › Alabama at LSU
AlabamaNo. 106-2away
BEAVER projects25
Tiger Stadium (LA), 71°, wind 2 mph
LSUNo. 156-2home
BEAVER projects29
BEAVERUnder 54.5, leanleanALA +3.5, leanleanBEAVER gives LSU 59% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Alabama
LSU

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Under 54.5, lean0.2 points off the line
  • ALA +3.5 lean, 0.1 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (ALA–LSU)25–29–
SpreadLSU −3.4LSU −3.5ALA +3.5
Total54.354.5Under 54.5
LSU win chance59%−185
ALA by 14+
14%
ALA by 1–13
28%
LSU by 1–13
33%
LSU by 14+
25%

Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.188 #5Offense EPA / play+0.166 #13
−0.187 #3Defense EPA / play allowed−0.180 #9
+7.6% #11Offense success rate+9.4% #8
−8.4% #7Defense success rate allowed−10.3% #2
+0.166 #18Rushing EPA / play+0.093 #37
+0.251 #8Passing EPA / play+0.256 #7
−0.257 #1Rush defense EPA allowed−0.144 #13
−0.089 #28Pass defense EPA allowed−0.245 #3
+14.0 #4Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+12.5 #6
−10.4 #7Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−9.9 #9
Situational
+1.7% #39Passing-down success (3rd & long)+9.7% #6
−4.5% #19Passing-down success allowed−8.0% #6
+1.63 #7Points per drive+1.93 #4
−1.42 #3Points per drive allowed−1.06 #9
Trenches
+0.39 #24Line yards per rush+0.35 #31
−0.98 #2Line yards per rush allowed−1.04 #1
−2.8% #54Runs stuffed at the line−3.3% #49
+8.3% #4Opponent runs stuffed+9.6% #1
−1.3% #72Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.7% #41
+3.2% #15Havoc created+5.1% #3
Big plays
+0.008 #73Rushing explosiveness−0.064 #104
+0.197 #36Passing explosiveness+0.092 #81
+0.36 #16Open-field yards per rush−0.08 #64
+0.071 #98Pass explosiveness allowed+0.006 #68
Style and schedule
54% #82Run rate54% #84
+9.6 #2Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+2.4 #17

Alabama: last 5 games

W31-20
vsTexas A&M
Missed
L10-26
atTennessee
Missed
L17-20
vsGeorgia
Missed
W56-23
atMississippi State
Covered
W49-18
vsSouth Carolina
Covered

LSU: last 5 games

W38-17
atAuburn
Covered
W31-0
vsMississippi State
Covered
L34-35
atKentucky
Missed
W63-14
vsMcNeese
Missed
W35-6
vsTexas A&M
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.04+0.10+0.24+0.37+0.51Entering week12345678910Alabama · 1: +0.30Alabama · 2: +0.33Alabama · 3: +0.40Alabama · 4: +0.39Alabama · 5: +0.38Alabama · 6: +0.47Alabama · 7: +0.46Alabama · 8: +0.39Alabama · 9: +0.38Alabama · 10: +0.38LSU · 1: +0.15LSU · 2: +0.30LSU · 3: +0.31LSU · 4: +0.27LSU · 5: +0.32LSU · 6: +0.28LSU · 7: +0.28LSU · 8: +0.33LSU · 9: +0.35LSU · 10: +0.35
● Alabama● LSU