BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Mississippi State at Texas
Mississippi State4-3away
BEAVER projects17
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, 78°, wind 3 mph
TexasNo. 115-2home
BEAVER projects36
BEAVEROver 50.5, leanleanMSST +21, leanleanBEAVER gives TEX 88% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Mississippi State
Texas

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Over 50.5, lean2.9 points off the line
  • MSST +21 lean, 2.2 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (MSST–TEX)17–36–
SpreadTEX −18.8TEX −21MSST +21
Total53.450.5Over 50.5
TEX win chance88%−1450
MSST by 14+
2%
MSST by 1–13
10%
TEX by 1–13
26%
TEX by 14+
62%

Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Mississippi State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened TEX −20.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.109 #23Offense EPA / play+0.034 #46
+0.011 #60Defense EPA / play allowed−0.186 #4
+7.4% #13Offense success rate+3.5% #32
+0.9% #75Defense success rate allowed−11.0% #1
+0.154 #21Rushing EPA / play+0.053 #57
+0.090 #34Passing EPA / play+0.062 #43
−0.052 #36Rush defense EPA allowed−0.179 #7
+0.037 #64Pass defense EPA allowed−0.202 #10
+6.6 #22Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+7.6 #13
−0.9 #57Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−12.3 #3
Situational
+3.7% #25Passing-down success (3rd & long)+3.0% #29
+0.3% #66Passing-down success allowed−9.9% #1
+0.98 #18Points per drive+0.97 #19
−0.12 #51Points per drive allowed−1.72 #1
Trenches
+0.52 #9Line yards per rush+0.06 #76
+0.07 #75Line yards per rush allowed−0.58 #7
−3.4% #46Runs stuffed at the line−1.3% #77
−2.3% #102Opponent runs stuffed+5.9% #8
−3.1% #32Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.0% #104
−0.5% #68Havoc created+5.0% #4
Big plays
−0.016 #84Rushing explosiveness−0.084 #111
+0.120 #68Passing explosiveness+0.156 #54
+0.27 #23Open-field yards per rush−0.01 #51
+0.025 #75Pass explosiveness allowed−0.135 #15
Style and schedule
55% #66Run rate58% #43
+7.6 #5Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+11.6 #1

Mississippi State: last 5 games

L15-23
vsOklahoma
Missed
L0-31
atLSU
Missed
L23-56
vsAlabama
Missed
W31-24
vsMissouri
Covered
W41-34
atSouth Carolina
Covered

Texas: last 5 games

W34-27
vsOle Miss
Covered
L24-27
vsFlorida
Missed
L24-27
vsOklahoma
Missed
W20-17
atTennessee
Missed
W30-6
vsUTSA
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.06+0.14+0.22+0.30Entering week123456789Mississippi State · 1: +0.01Mississippi State · 2: +0.13Mississippi State · 3: +0.28Mississippi State · 4: +0.25Mississippi State · 5: +0.23Mississippi State · 6: +0.18Mississippi State · 7: +0.18Mississippi State · 8: +0.12Mississippi State · 9: +0.10Texas · 1: +0.25Texas · 2: +0.25Texas · 3: +0.25Texas · 4: +0.24Texas · 5: +0.28Texas · 6: +0.28Texas · 7: +0.25Texas · 8: +0.21Texas · 9: +0.22
● Mississippi State● Texas