BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › South Carolina at Oklahoma
South Carolina4-3away
BEAVER projects21
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK), 67°, wind 10 mph
Oklahoma4-3home
BEAVER projects23
BEAVERSC +5.5, best betbest betOver 44.5, leanleanBEAVER gives OU 56% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
South Carolina
Oklahoma

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
SC +5.5, best bet3.1 points off the line
  • Over 44.5 lean, 0.1 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (SC–OU)21–23–
SpreadOU −2.4OU −5.5SC +5.5
Total44.644.5Over 44.5
OU win chance56%−198
SC by 14+
15%
SC by 1–13
29%
OU by 1–13
33%
OU by 14+
23%

Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for South Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.091 #28Offense EPA / play−0.024 #77
−0.008 #49Defense EPA / play allowed−0.219 #1
+2.1% #47Offense success rate−0.8% #75
−2.2% #41Defense success rate allowed−10.1% #3
+0.206 #9Rushing EPA / play−0.082 #118
−0.022 #68Passing EPA / play+0.122 #28
−0.117 #17Rush defense EPA allowed−0.163 #11
+0.103 #93Pass defense EPA allowed−0.203 #9
+7.1 #16Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.5 #67
−3.2 #37Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−11.5 #4
Situational
−3.0% #77Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.2% #52
+0.3% #67Passing-down success allowed−8.7% #4
+1.08 #16Points per drive+0.38 #47
−0.62 #28Points per drive allowed−1.45 #2
Trenches
+0.59 #4Line yards per rush+0.09 #72
−0.51 #9Line yards per rush allowed−0.29 #25
−4.9% #21Runs stuffed at the line−0.9% #85
+4.6% #17Opponent runs stuffed+2.8% #35
−2.4% #44Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.8% #57
−0.6% #72Havoc created+2.5% #22
Big plays
+0.103 #30Rushing explosiveness−0.235 #136
+0.142 #58Passing explosiveness+0.178 #42
+0.78 #3Open-field yards per rush+0.07 #44
−0.020 #55Pass explosiveness allowed−0.035 #40
Style and schedule
55% #76Run rate56% #63
+1.8 #19Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+6.5 #8

South Carolina: last 5 games

W27-24
vsTennessee
Covered
W38-19
atFlorida
Covered
L34-35
vsKentucky
Missed
L18-49
atAlabama
Missed
L34-41
vsMississippi State
Missed

Oklahoma: last 5 games

W23-15
atMississippi State
Covered
L13-21
vsKentucky
Missed
W27-24
vsTexas
Covered
L13-41
atGeorgia
Missed
W14-6
vsNew Mexico
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.05+0.13+0.20+0.27Entering week123456789South Carolina · 1: +0.11South Carolina · 2: +0.16South Carolina · 3: +0.01South Carolina · 4: +0.01South Carolina · 5: +0.01South Carolina · 6: +0.01South Carolina · 7: +0.08South Carolina · 8: +0.08South Carolina · 9: +0.10Oklahoma · 1: +0.17Oklahoma · 2: +0.25Oklahoma · 3: +0.20Oklahoma · 4: +0.16Oklahoma · 5: +0.16Oklahoma · 6: +0.15Oklahoma · 7: +0.18Oklahoma · 8: +0.15Oklahoma · 9: +0.19
● South Carolina● Oklahoma