BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Auburn at Ole Miss
Auburn4-3away
BEAVER projects21
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, 65°, wind 8 mph
Ole MissNo. 125-2home
BEAVER projects36
BEAVERMISS −13.5, leanleanUnder 57.5, leanleanBEAVER gives MISS 82% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Auburn
Ole Miss

BEAVER’s card

Lean
MISS −13.5, lean1.3 points off the line
  • Under 57.5 lean, 1.0 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (AUB–MISS)21–36–
SpreadMISS −14.8MISS −13.5MISS −13.5
Total56.557.5Under 57.5
MISS win chance82%−535
AUB by 14+
4%
AUB by 1–13
14%
MISS by 1–13
30%
MISS by 14+
52%

Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for Ole Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened MISS −10.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.063 #37Offense EPA / play+0.218 #4
−0.065 #30Defense EPA / play allowed−0.010 #47
+1.8% #52Offense success rate+10.1% #4
−3.0% #30Defense success rate allowed−2.0% #42
+0.182 #12Rushing EPA / play+0.217 #5
−0.034 #71Passing EPA / play+0.218 #10
−0.048 #38Rush defense EPA allowed+0.028 #76
−0.055 #36Pass defense EPA allowed−0.086 #29
+1.2 #58Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+11.3 #7
−6.9 #23Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.3 #28
Situational
+1.7% #38Passing-down success (3rd & long)+8.7% #7
−3.2% #31Passing-down success allowed−3.2% #29
+0.07 #62Points per drive+1.42 #8
−1.13 #8Points per drive allowed−0.78 #20
Trenches
+0.40 #22Line yards per rush+0.44 #17
−0.31 #23Line yards per rush allowed−0.21 #36
−4.4% #31Runs stuffed at the line−3.9% #37
+2.5% #38Opponent runs stuffed+4.8% #15
−1.4% #69Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.6% #8
+0.6% #41Havoc created−0.0% #57
Big plays
+0.147 #12Rushing explosiveness+0.125 #21
+0.085 #86Passing explosiveness+0.105 #71
+0.28 #22Open-field yards per rush+0.03 #48
−0.045 #35Pass explosiveness allowed+0.017 #73
Style and schedule
55% #72Run rate51% #119
+8.4 #3Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+6.7 #7

Auburn: last 5 games

L17-38
vsLSU
Missed
W27-24
atGeorgia
Covered
L14-24
atTennessee
Missed
W21-15
vsVanderbilt
Missed
L39-44
vsFlorida
Missed

Ole Miss: last 5 games

L27-34
atTexas
Missed
W31-3
vsMissouri
Covered
W52-17
atVanderbilt
Covered
L28-52
atFlorida
Missed
W32-24
vsLSU
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.05+0.12+0.19+0.26Entering week123456789Auburn · 1: +0.10Auburn · 2: +0.07Auburn · 3: +0.14Auburn · 4: +0.08Auburn · 5: +0.12Auburn · 6: +0.12Auburn · 7: +0.08Auburn · 8: +0.15Auburn · 9: +0.13Ole Miss · 1: +0.19Ole Miss · 2: +0.15Ole Miss · 3: +0.09Ole Miss · 4: +0.17Ole Miss · 5: +0.15Ole Miss · 6: +0.13Ole Miss · 7: +0.17Ole Miss · 8: +0.24Ole Miss · 9: +0.23
● Auburn● Ole Miss