College football scores › Week 9 › Florida at Georgia
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, indoors
BEAVEROver 55.5, best betbest betUGA −11.5, best betbest betBEAVER gives UGA 84% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Florida
Georgia
FloridaGeorgiaBEAVER’s card
Best betOver 55.5, best bet6.9 points off the line
- UGA −11.5 best bet, 4.5 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FLA–UGA) | 23–39 | – | |
| Spread | UGA −16.0 | UGA −11.5 | UGA −11.5 |
| Total | 62.4 | 55.5 | Over 55.5 |
| UGA win chance | 84% | −440 |
FLA by 14+
3%
FLA by 1–13
13%
UGA by 1–13
29%
UGA by 14+
55%
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 6.9 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened UGA −12.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.151 #16Offense EPA / play+0.230 #3
−0.045 #37Defense EPA / play allowed−0.091 #19
+6.5% #15Offense success rate+12.0% #1
−0.4% #53Defense success rate allowed−6.2% #11
+0.116 #30Rushing EPA / play+0.208 #8
+0.205 #11Passing EPA / play+0.285 #5
−0.075 #29Rush defense EPA allowed−0.174 #8
+0.048 #69Pass defense EPA allowed−0.092 #27
+11.0 #8Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+14.7 #3
−1.5 #50Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.5 #17
Situational
+3.6% #26Passing-down success (3rd & long)+10.9% #3
+0.4% #70Passing-down success allowed−7.5% #8
+1.83 #6Points per drive+2.45 #3
−0.22 #46Points per drive allowed−0.57 #31
Trenches
+0.12 #63Line yards per rush+0.73 #1
−0.12 #47Line yards per rush allowed−0.41 #13
−2.2% #66Runs stuffed at the line−7.7% #4
−1.7% #96Opponent runs stuffed−0.9% #81
−4.8% #12Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.3% #17
+2.5% #21Havoc created+1.1% #34
Big plays
−0.029 #87Rushing explosiveness−0.106 #121
+0.130 #64Passing explosiveness+0.022 #103
+0.13 #37Open-field yards per rush+0.54 #9
−0.027 #47Pass explosiveness allowed+0.139 #126
Style and schedule
61% #21Run rate54% #87
+3.3 #11Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−2.9 #46
Florida: last 5 games
| W27-24 | Covered | |
| L19-38 | Missed | |
| L17-45 | Missed | |
| W52-28 | Covered | |
| W44-39 | Covered |
Georgia: last 5 games
| L24-27 | Missed | |
| W20-17 | Covered | |
| W38-14 | Missed | |
| W41-13 | Covered | |
| W45-17 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekFLAUGA
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The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyFloridaGeorgia
FloridaGeorgiaLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UGA −11.5 | 55.5 | FLA +340 · UGA −440 |
| BEAVER fair line | UGA −16 | 62.4 | FLA +513 · UGA −513 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| FLA | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 4-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 39.6 / 28.3 | Points for / against | 43.0 / 15.9 |
| +11.3 | Avg margin | +27.1 |
| -1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.1 |
| 59.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.7 |