College football scores › Week 9 › Missouri at Arkansas
Razorback Stadium, 60°, wind 8 mph
BEAVERUnder 49.5, leanleanARK +10, leanleanBEAVER gives MIZ 70% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Missouri
Arkansas
MissouriArkansasBEAVER’s card
LeanUnder 49.5, lean3.5 points off the line
- ARK +10 lean, 1.6 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MIZ–ARK) | 27–19 | – | |
| Spread | MIZ −8.4 | MIZ −10 | ARK +10 |
| Total | 46.0 | 49.5 | Under 49.5 |
| ARK win chance | 30% | +300 |
MIZ by 14+
36%
MIZ by 1–13
34%
ARK by 1–13
22%
ARK by 14+
8%
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Arkansas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened MIZ −10.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.043 #42Offense EPA / play−0.010 #72
−0.120 #15Defense EPA / play allowed+0.069 #85
−0.3% #70Offense success rate+3.4% #34
−8.3% #8Defense success rate allowed+0.3% #73
+0.017 #77Rushing EPA / play+0.024 #73
+0.109 #29Passing EPA / play+0.001 #61
−0.117 #18Rush defense EPA allowed+0.069 #91
−0.093 #26Pass defense EPA allowed+0.067 #80
+2.2 #50Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.4 #77
−7.4 #19Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.5 #61
Situational
−0.4% #55Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.2% #80
−5.3% #15Passing-down success allowed−5.0% #17
+0.27 #54Points per drive−0.26 #81
−0.89 #15Points per drive allowed+0.25 #75
Trenches
+0.05 #77Line yards per rush+0.08 #74
−0.48 #10Line yards per rush allowed−0.02 #66
−0.7% #88Runs stuffed at the line−4.3% #33
+4.5% #18Opponent runs stuffed−1.5% #88
−0.7% #89Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.6% #92
+4.4% #7Havoc created−1.4% #90
Big plays
−0.072 #106Rushing explosiveness−0.069 #105
+0.200 #34Passing explosiveness−0.083 #131
−0.01 #52Open-field yards per rush−0.47 #113
+0.065 #94Pass explosiveness allowed+0.004 #66
Style and schedule
56% #65Run rate52% #107
−1.6 #37Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+3.5 #10
Missouri: last 5 games
| L3-31 | Missed | |
| W27-6 | Covered | |
| W45-17 | Covered | |
| L24-31 | Missed | |
| W27-17 | Missed |
Arkansas: last 5 games
| W31-21 | Covered | |
| L17-24 | Covered | |
| L7-34 | Missed | |
| W34-6 | Covered | |
| L17-45 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMIZARK
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The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyMissouriArkansas
MissouriArkansasLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MIZ −10 | 49.5 | MIZ −380 · ARK +300 |
| BEAVER fair line | MIZ −8.4 | 46.0 | MIZ −237 · ARK +237 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MIZ | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 31.1 / 19.6 | Points for / against | 21.0 / 26.7 |
| +11.6 | Avg margin | -5.7 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.4 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.3 |