College football scores › Week 7 › The Citadel at Texas A&M
BEAVER TA&M −45.5, lostBEAVER Over 57.5, lostBEAVER had TA&M 100% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CIT–TA&M) | 2–55 | – | 0–41 | |
| Spread | TA&M −53.1 | TA&M −45.5 | TA&M by 41 | TA&M −45.5 ✗ |
| Total | 57.6 | 57.5 | 41 | Over 57.5 ✗ |
| TA&M win chance | 100% | – | Won |
CIT by 14+
0%
CIT by 1–13
0%
TA&M by 1–13
1%
TA&M by 14+
99%
Spread: 7.6 pts better than Vegas for Texas A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.236Offense EPA / play+0.010 #57
+0.342Defense EPA / play allowed−0.074 #29
−10.9%Offense success rate+1.6% #52
+14.1%Defense success rate allowed−5.0% #16
−0.094Rushing EPA / play+0.083 #47
−0.217Passing EPA / play−0.023 #68
+0.389Rush defense EPA allowed−0.104 #23
+0.252Pass defense EPA allowed−0.011 #51
−18.4Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.2 #43
+20.1Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.4 #14
Situational
−12.8%Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.0% #50
+7.0%Passing-down success allowed−6.0% #13
−2.72Points per drive+0.52 #36
+2.67Points per drive allowed−0.98 #10
Trenches
−0.43Line yards per rush+0.32 #34
+0.81Line yards per rush allowed−0.19 #33
+4.4%Runs stuffed at the line−4.7% #30
−6.5%Opponent runs stuffed+1.8% #44
+2.7%Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.3% #31
−5.2%Havoc created+1.2% #33
Big plays
+0.090Rushing explosiveness+0.018 #67
+0.669Passing explosiveness−0.073 #128
−0.34Open-field yards per rush−0.21 #76
−0.172Pass explosiveness allowed+0.171 #128
Style and schedule
76%Run rate55% #65
−28.7Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+2.9 #12
The Citadel: last 1 games
| W43-41 | Covered |
Texas A&M: last 5 games
| L6-27 | Missed | |
| W34-7 | Covered | |
| L6-35 | Missed | |
| L21-31 | Missed | |
| W48-20 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCITTA&M
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TA&M −45.5 | 57.5 | – |
| BEAVER fair line | TA&M −53.1 | 57.6 | CIT +19900 · TA&M −19900 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CIT | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 4-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 3-5 |
| 21.5 / 41.0 | Points for / against | 28.2 / 18.9 |
| -19.5 | Avg margin | +9.4 |
| +14.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.6 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.8 |